Research on Reliability of Wind Farm Based on Copula Theory

B. Han†*, C. W. Finkl‡

Institute of New Energy Science and Technology of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, 075000, China,
‡Coastal Education and Research Foundation, Inc. (CERF), Fletcher, NC 28732, U.S.A.

Cite this paper
B. Han†*, C. W. Finkl‡, “Research on Reliability of Wind Farm Based on Copula Theory”, Journal of Mechanical Engineering Research and Developments, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 426-432, 2016. DOI: 10.7508/jmerd.2016.02.019

ABSTRACT: With large capacity wind farm connected to power system, due to its intermittency, random volatility and uncertainty, the distribution of power flow will be effected. Previous studies mostly focus on the wind speeds among different wind farms. In the present paper, probability distribution modeling method of joint output of wind farm and Photovoltaic power station is distributed. This method not only considers the randomness of photovoltaic power plants and wind farm output, but also considers the correlation between them. Firstly, calculate the probability distribution of wind farm and select Kendall rank correlation coefficient as the correlation measure. Use the Frank Copula function to calculate the joint probability distribution. At last, take RBTS standard testing system as the example analysis to test the reliability of the wind farm. The results show that the reliability evaluation of wind farm considering the correlation is more practical.

Keywords : Wind farm; Copula theory; Probability distribution.


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